Category: Africa Monitor Intelligence

The difficult situation of the São Tomé economy and the state finances, along with the budgetary priorities of PM PATRICE TROVOADA (PT), are the main cause pointed for the multiplication of focuses of contestation to the government. As determined, the aforementioned focuses already extend from the opposition and trade unions to the public administration and wider circles of society, including PM’s own party, ADI, and its parliamentary group.

ELIAS DHLAKAMA (ED), brother of founder AFONSO DHLAKAMA (AD), is also expected to run again for the leadership of the party, as in the last congress, which he lost to OM (AM 1351), challenging the internal process.

JULIANO PICARDO (JP), former MP, candidate in 2019 and current member of the Council of State by RENAMO, also announced his intention to advance.

The new level in which the Angolan government wants to place its relations with China is also seen as a reflection of the importance it has given to the US as its strategic partner.
The high amount of Angola’s debt to China, corresponding to about 40% of the country’s total external debt, as well as the obligations to the State of the respective debt service, is considered by the Angolan authorities as sufficient reason for the existence of a climate of good understanding in the relations between the two countries, allowing to manage without delays the amortisation.

Debt cancellation has mainly political objectives for Moscow, with no significant effects on the growing weight of public debt on Guinea’s public finances. Public debt will currently be around 80% of GDP, with a trend to slightly lower after exceeding this range in 2022, and the country is already over the sustainability criteria of the West African Monetary Economic Union (maximum debt-to-GDP ratio of 70%). READ MORE

IIB Group, which acquired BICV Bank, now IIB CV, was widely considered as the best-positioned candidate. The positive operating results of IIB CV and an innovative approach to the market when compared with its competitors were considered advantages, along with the prospect of future merger with BCA. According to banking sources, IIB was caught by surprise by the decision, after several public and promotional interventions of its international officials. READ MORE

The new unit of the police will be called Criminal Crime Investigation Branch (RIIC) and should include the fight and investigation of the phenomenon of kidnappings, finally allowing the specialisation of police in this type of crime. The creation of this police branch calls into question the National Criminal Investigation Service (SERNIC), whose effectiveness in the repression of organised crime has been successively called into question in the face of the involvement of members of the autonomous service in criminal groups linked to drug trafficking and kidnappings (AM 1417). READ MORE

The internal movements go in the direction of collecting and purchasing internal support among potential candidates and there is no internal consensus. Several figures from FRELIMO have come to publicly criticise the current state of the party, the last of which the former PM under the presidency of AG, ALBERTO VAQUINA, also pre-candidate defeated in 2014. The Association of Liberation Fighters of Mozambique (ACLIN), a FRELIMO satellite organisation led by FERNANDO FAUSTINO, has also assumed the intention to launch its own candidate, and the choice may fall on reserve general ANTÓNIO HAMA THAI. READ MORE

The difficult situation of the São Tomé economy and the state finances, along with the budgetary priorities of PM PATRICE TROVOADA (PT), are the main cause pointed for the multiplication of focuses of contestation to the government. As determined, the aforementioned focuses already extend from the opposition and trade unions to the public administration and wider circles of society, including PM’s own party, ADI, and its parliamentary group.

The new level in which the Angolan government wants to place its relations with China is also seen as a reflection of the importance it has given to the US as its strategic partner.

The high amount of Angola’s debt to China, corresponding to about 40% of the country’s total external debt, as well as the obligations to the State of the respective debt service, is considered by the Angolan authorities as sufficient reason for the existence of a climate of good understanding in the relations between the two countries, allowing to manage without delays the amortisation.